Common Sense was 9-2 last week for a 19-6 record on the season.

Common Sense came through with tough picks — A.L. Brown over Sun Valley, Gretna over Davie County and Northwest Cabarrus over South Rowan. It fumbled its biggest carry — East beating West Iredell.

Common Sense was accused of "writing the Mustangs off and giving East no chance," when it picked East to lose 28-20 on the road.

Hey, maybe it's time to explain what a prediction is.

A predicted score comes from weighing many factors — injuries, who's hot, home field, matchups, performance against common opponents and the way the series has gone over the years.

Predicting a school that was 16-61 (thank goodness for that forfeit!) from 2000-06 to lose by eight points on the road to a school that finished second in the NPC last season and is pretty sure it has the best team in school history isn't exactly writing someone off.

Actually, it was paying East a compliment. Forecasting a team to lose by eight means you're recognizing that team has a realistic chance of winning if the ball bounces its way.

Predicting a team to lose by 38 is writing it off.

Yes, East is a good team, but West Rowan, Mooresville and Northwest Cabarrus aren't trembling just yet. And they won't tremble if the Mustangs keep allowing 460 yards as they did on Friday.

Still, East fans are giddy and should be. There's been 35 years or so of mostly losing, losing, losing in Granite Quarry, so winning three in a row is actually something to shout about.

The Post sports department is captivated by it too. There's nothing we get a bigger kick out of than seeing a losing program start winning. Seeing smiles on the faces of coaches, players, parents and fans is cool.

West football turned things around. Salisbury's football, baseball and girls basketball programs did it, and East's boys basketball program has definitely performed a U-turn.

Maybe East's football program is going to keep rolling. It would be a sweet story, one of the biggest of 2007.

So enjoy it and embrace it Mustang maniacs, but don't hang those state championship banners just yet. It's still September.

And please remember predictions are educated guesses, no more, no less. Don't take them personally.

Now if Common Sense predicts the Mustangs to lose to Mooresville 40-0 next week, well, then you can get seriously mad.

The picks:

West 27, NW Cabarrus 14

Two of the state's best sophomores — West's K.P. Parks and Northwest's Jeremy Cannon — should decide tonight's marquee matchup.

Both sophs should be wearing red capes and dressing in phone booths.

East 35, Carson 14

East's offense is its best since Josh Brady was throwing to Nick Heard a decade ago.

South 21, Statesville 17

Critical game for the Raiders. If they lose this one, the second division is almost a sure bet.

E. Randolph 24, Salisbury 21

Maybe we're still underestimating the Hornets — Common Sense missed them last week — but it's a quality 3A program against a quality 2A program.

Thomasville 27, North 7

Thomasville has won 40 straight. That isn't encouraging news for North, which has a one-game winning streak.

A.L. Brown 20, Anson 17

Wonders have a chance to go undefeated in the regular season for the first time since 1999. Two serious obstacles remain — Anson tonight; Concord on Nov. 2.

Davie 49, Berry Academy 0

Davie is 0-2 against Independence, but this is a Charlotte team the War Eagles can handle.

Davie will take out some frustration. May as well change the name of the school to Bury Academy

NPC picks

West Iredell 35, Lake Norman 21; Mooresville 42, North Iredell 7

SPC picks

Sun Valley 42, Piedmont 7; Parkwood 21, Marvin Ridge 14; Concord 50, Hickory Ridge 6